Understanding Bahrain
“In Bahrain we do not have Sunni or Shia problems, we have Bahraini problems such as the need for job creation, access to better services and a measured opening of the political arena.” These words by King Hamad of Bahrain were also echoed by the man who earlier this week ordered 1000 Saudi troops to enter Bahrain, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, son of the King of Saudi Arabia and Head of the Saudi National Guard. The Prince reiterated that tackling the economic problems of Bahrain should not fall into religious fault-lines: “The GCC is sending troops into Bahrain not to put down protests but to buy time for Bahrain to make the necessary economic and political changes required to restore stability and calm.”
Not withstanding these comments, it is fast becoming apparent that two opposing world views are clashing over Bahrain – home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet: a Saudi view which revolves around stability and gradual reform versus the Iranian world view cemented thirty-two years ago by the late Ayatollah Khomeini which focuses on exporting Iran’s revolutionary message to Muslims across the region. The recent promotion of Qassem Soleimani Head of the Quds Forces to Brigadier General by Iran’s Spiritual Leader is a sign that Iran is serious about continuing Khomeini’s legacy. One of the main mandates of the Quds Forces is to destabilize American allies in the Middle East.
It is within this context that Washington must strike a balance: one between standing by its long-time ally Bahrain and at the same time standing up for our universal values of human rights and freedom. How President Obama responds to this dilemma will determine the future of the region. If done right it will produce an outcome that will leave the U.S. standing by not only our friends and preserving the aspirations for democracy, but leave the Iranian regime isolated and decoupled from the Shia who feel aggrieved. President Obama should capitalize on this historic opportunity to strike this balance in Bahrain because the stakes are enormous.
As the world’s largest consumer of energy, the U.S. has a major stake in oil price stability. This stability rests on the uninterrupted export of crude oil from the Persian Gulf to markets around the world – a job that has been historically assigned to the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Seventy percent of the world’s remaining oil reserves are in the Persian Gulf and over thirty percent of the oil from the region flows through the territorial waters of Bahrain.
Beyond energy is the perception among some leaders in the region as to whether America can be trusted as a friend or will it abandon its allies when the going gets tough. The manner in which President Obama dealt with former President Mubarak versus the way in which he has handled Libya to date has raised private concerns that he is weak, does not stand by long-time friends and has a world view completely at odds with those of America’s traditional friends. How President Obama manages the crisis in Bahrain can verse this perception.
By playing his cards correctly in Bahrain the President also has the chance to prevent the Iranian regime from manipulating the legitimate grievance of the Shia in the Arab world. Although the Shia are the minority within in the Muslim world, they are a majority in countries where the U.S. has important national security interests. The majority of Iraqis are Shia, the majority of Saudi Arabia’s eastern province – the center of its oil industry — are Shia, Lebanon is majority Shia and of course eighty percent of Iranians are Shia. By quietly pushing for regime adjustment in Bahrain, the President can coordinate a series of changes acceptable to the Bahraini Shia opposition and King Hamad.
In order for President Obama to broker a quick, equitable and fair end to the impasse in Bahrain, he should consider coordinating his efforts with Prince Miteb, who is a close advisor to his father. The Prince can deliver the GCC and assist Bahrain in striking the right balance between stability of the monarchy and addressing the legitimate concerns of the Shia opposition. How can this be achieved?
First, a GCC Marshal Plan for Bahrain is in order. The President and Prince Miteb can ask Qatar to play a lead role. The Amir of Qatar can temporarily lift his country’s moratorium of deliveries of natural gas to resource poor Bahrain. Qatar can also pledge to host one of the venues for the world cup in Manama. Furthermore, Doha can fast track the construction of the much touted Bahrain-Qatar causeway. This will allow hundreds of Bahraini Shia immediate employment. Finally, Saudi Arabia can take the lead in asking Abu Dhabi and Kuwait to fund solar and water treatment projects that will allow King Hamad to address a recurring opposition complaint; namely, access to affordable electricity and water.
Second, Washington and Riyadh can fund and implement a training program in the U.S. for new recruits to the Bahraini police force. These recruits can also include members of the Shia community, thus addressing a major demand of the opposition. Third, given the trust King Hamad has in his Saudi partners and the reservoir of good-will he has for t he U.S. , the President and the Prince has ask for changes in the King’s cabinet that are long overdue.
By striking the correct balance in Bahrain, President Obama can restore America’s image in the Middle East as both a trusted friend and defender of universal values of freedom and democracy.